Everything favours Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo plays Chivas Guadalajara this Wednesday in the return leg of the Copa Libertadores semifinal as prohibitive favourites to advance. Not only has the team from Morumbi won the first leg played in Mexico last week by a 1-0 score, but the team also has history on its side. Sao Paulo only needs a tie to advance to the final, and the team has never lost in 22 matches played at the Morumbi in home-and-away series in the Libertadores. It has only tied once (a scoreless draw in the semifinal against Once Caldas in 2004) and won all the other 21 games. With close to 70,000 fans expected today at the Morumbi, the locals will also have the undeniable benefit of a supportive home crowd. With a likely open style of play by both sides, Sao Paulo will only have to worry about feeling some pressure if it falls behind early. But with a side that has already experienced what it takes to win a Libertadores Cup, Sao Paulo fans can usually trust their players' nerves.

However, football is not an exact science, and not even all history can give 100 percent certainty that Sao Paulo will play in the Libertadores final. After all, prior to its 2-1 loss at home to the same Chivas side in the tournament's first round, Sao Paulo had not lost a continental match at home in 19 years. The Mexicans have done it once. Will they be able to pull the same trick twice in the same season?