Brazilian Serie A - round 37 preview
With Sao Paulo winning the title last weekend, all that is left to play in the Brazilian Serie A is qualifying for continental competitions Libertadores and Sudamericana, as well as a final relegation battle.
Here are my views for this weekend's games:
BOTAFOGO x CORINTHIANS: Botafogo and Corinthians are still trying to confirm their Copa Sudamericana invitation, having improved in the latter part of the tournament to escape the risk of relegation. The locals seem to have a little bit of an edge here, but Corinthians has shown in the last couple of weeks that it should have done a better job in the tournament, were it not for the many troubles that hit the team at the administrative level this year. Botafogo is winless in three games overall, but won five of its last seven home games. Corinthians is unbeaten in seven games, three of them away from home.
GREMIO x FLAMENGO: Gremio stepped up in the last couple of weeks after falling of the title race, and is now guaranteed of a return to the Libertadores. Not bad for a team coming back from a trip to the Serie B in 2005. Its only motivation now seems to be to see if it can finish better than their crosstown rivals Internacional, currently two points ahead in the standings. Flamengo will also play in the Libertadores thanks to its Brazilian Cup win, and has nothing to play for here. The locals are favorites for this match. Gremio has a three-game winning streak going, while Flamengo has lost two in a row.
JUVENTUDE x FORTALEZA: With a place in the Serie A guaranteed for next year, Juventude now tries to make some ground and get into the Copa Sudamericana qualification zone. The team has a great chance to close the gap to Corinthian and Goias this week, hosting second-last Fortaleza. The team from Ceara State has been in the relegation zone for most of the season, and has been confirmed to be going to the Serie B for a couple of weeks now. With zero motivation from the visitors, this should be an easy one for Juventude, which usually plays well at home. The locals have won six of their last eight in Caxias do Sul. Fortaleza lost its last two games away from home.
SAO PAULO x CRUZEIRO: Crowned new Brazilian champions last week, Sao Paulo will have a tough time keeping its concentration and effort levels to a similar level than experienced when the team was still battling for the title. Cruzeiro does not have a chance of making the Libertadores zone anymore, but the team still has to get some points to confirm its spot in the Copa Sudamericana. With only four losses this season, Sao Paulo is currently unbeaten in eleven games. Cruzeiro is winless in three.
SAO CAETANO x PARANA: Sao Caetano still holds a very faint hope of remaining in the Brazilian Serie A if it can win its last two games and Fluminense and Ponte Preta lose twice. Despite this unlikely scenario, the team will try to at least do its part when it hosts Parana on Sunday. The task will not be an easy one though, as Parana trails Vasco by just one point for the last Libertadores spot, and will do its best to remain in contention for a place in the prestigious continental competition. Parana hasn't won a game in its last four tries away from home, but Sao Caetano hasn't shown much at home either, having just two wins in the last ten games at Anacleto Campanella.
ATLETICO PARANAENSE x FIGUEIRENSE: Figueirense still has an outside chance of making it to the Libertadores, but to do that the team must win its last two games and hope that Vasco and Parana fail in their own matches. This week, the team from Santa Catarina travels to Curitiba to face Atletico Paranaense, who had a good effort in the game that confirmed Sao Paulo's title last Sunday, only to be eliminated from the Copa Sudamericana with a humiliating 4-1 away loss to Pachuca in Mexico midweek. How Atletico reacts to that game will be essential in knowing how they will show up here. The locals are still fighting for a Copa Sudamericana berth though, so that could be motivating enough. The locals are winless in four, while Figueirense managed two away wins in its last three games outside Santa Catarina.
VASCO x SANTOS: Vasco is the favorite for the last Libertadores spot in the standings, but the team must not take anything for granted with a single-point advantage over Parana with two games left in the season. This week the team has a tough meeting at home against Santos, which itself is just one position above Vasco, three points up. Theoretically, Santos can still be surpassed by both Vasco and Parana and be left out of the Libertadores, so the team will not just give up the points here. Vasco has won four and tied one of its last five home games, while Santos hasn't won a match away from Sao Paulo State all season (its only away wins came against other teams from Sao Paulo State).
GOIAS x PONTE PRETA: Ponte Preta keeps losing great chances to escape the relegation zone, and now the team sees itself with no room to spare in the last couple of games. Trailing Fluminense by three points, Ponte has a tough matchup away to Goias. The team must not only win both its matches, but also hope that Fluminense doesn't get more than three points in these games. Something difficult to happen, considering Ponte has won only two of its last ten games. Depending on Fluminense's result, a draw here would not be too bad. Goias is still fighting for a Copa Sudamericana spot, but must do better than what it did in its last three home games, all losses.
SANTA CRUZ x FLUMINENSE: Santa Cruz has been sentenced to the Serie B for a few weeks now, and seems to be just waiting for its miserable season to end. To make matters worse for them, their crosstown rivals from Sport and Nautico confirmed promotion to the Serie A next year, just as Santa goes down. This week the team has a good chance of getting some last honour saved when it hosts Fluminense, which has been playing just as poorly but remains just outside of the relegation zone thanks to a better start to the season. The team from Rio could find itself among the bottom four if it loses, so it will likely give its best effort to avoid disaster. Fluminense has drawn four times and lost six in its last ten games away from home. Santa has won three of its last seven home games.
PALMEIRAS x INTERNACIONAL: Palmeiras is not completely safe from being relegated just yet, but for that to happen the team must lose both its games while Ponte wins twice, with Fluminense also getting at least a win. The team hosts Internacional, who can finish as runners-up for the second year in a row. With its title hopes over, the team from Porto Alegre is now exclusively worried about its participation in the World Club Championship next month in Japan. Palmeiras has won its last two home games, while Inter lost to Parana away from home last weekend to see its three-game away winning streak end.
Here are my views for this weekend's games:
BOTAFOGO x CORINTHIANS: Botafogo and Corinthians are still trying to confirm their Copa Sudamericana invitation, having improved in the latter part of the tournament to escape the risk of relegation. The locals seem to have a little bit of an edge here, but Corinthians has shown in the last couple of weeks that it should have done a better job in the tournament, were it not for the many troubles that hit the team at the administrative level this year. Botafogo is winless in three games overall, but won five of its last seven home games. Corinthians is unbeaten in seven games, three of them away from home.
GREMIO x FLAMENGO: Gremio stepped up in the last couple of weeks after falling of the title race, and is now guaranteed of a return to the Libertadores. Not bad for a team coming back from a trip to the Serie B in 2005. Its only motivation now seems to be to see if it can finish better than their crosstown rivals Internacional, currently two points ahead in the standings. Flamengo will also play in the Libertadores thanks to its Brazilian Cup win, and has nothing to play for here. The locals are favorites for this match. Gremio has a three-game winning streak going, while Flamengo has lost two in a row.
JUVENTUDE x FORTALEZA: With a place in the Serie A guaranteed for next year, Juventude now tries to make some ground and get into the Copa Sudamericana qualification zone. The team has a great chance to close the gap to Corinthian and Goias this week, hosting second-last Fortaleza. The team from Ceara State has been in the relegation zone for most of the season, and has been confirmed to be going to the Serie B for a couple of weeks now. With zero motivation from the visitors, this should be an easy one for Juventude, which usually plays well at home. The locals have won six of their last eight in Caxias do Sul. Fortaleza lost its last two games away from home.
SAO PAULO x CRUZEIRO: Crowned new Brazilian champions last week, Sao Paulo will have a tough time keeping its concentration and effort levels to a similar level than experienced when the team was still battling for the title. Cruzeiro does not have a chance of making the Libertadores zone anymore, but the team still has to get some points to confirm its spot in the Copa Sudamericana. With only four losses this season, Sao Paulo is currently unbeaten in eleven games. Cruzeiro is winless in three.
SAO CAETANO x PARANA: Sao Caetano still holds a very faint hope of remaining in the Brazilian Serie A if it can win its last two games and Fluminense and Ponte Preta lose twice. Despite this unlikely scenario, the team will try to at least do its part when it hosts Parana on Sunday. The task will not be an easy one though, as Parana trails Vasco by just one point for the last Libertadores spot, and will do its best to remain in contention for a place in the prestigious continental competition. Parana hasn't won a game in its last four tries away from home, but Sao Caetano hasn't shown much at home either, having just two wins in the last ten games at Anacleto Campanella.
ATLETICO PARANAENSE x FIGUEIRENSE: Figueirense still has an outside chance of making it to the Libertadores, but to do that the team must win its last two games and hope that Vasco and Parana fail in their own matches. This week, the team from Santa Catarina travels to Curitiba to face Atletico Paranaense, who had a good effort in the game that confirmed Sao Paulo's title last Sunday, only to be eliminated from the Copa Sudamericana with a humiliating 4-1 away loss to Pachuca in Mexico midweek. How Atletico reacts to that game will be essential in knowing how they will show up here. The locals are still fighting for a Copa Sudamericana berth though, so that could be motivating enough. The locals are winless in four, while Figueirense managed two away wins in its last three games outside Santa Catarina.
VASCO x SANTOS: Vasco is the favorite for the last Libertadores spot in the standings, but the team must not take anything for granted with a single-point advantage over Parana with two games left in the season. This week the team has a tough meeting at home against Santos, which itself is just one position above Vasco, three points up. Theoretically, Santos can still be surpassed by both Vasco and Parana and be left out of the Libertadores, so the team will not just give up the points here. Vasco has won four and tied one of its last five home games, while Santos hasn't won a match away from Sao Paulo State all season (its only away wins came against other teams from Sao Paulo State).
GOIAS x PONTE PRETA: Ponte Preta keeps losing great chances to escape the relegation zone, and now the team sees itself with no room to spare in the last couple of games. Trailing Fluminense by three points, Ponte has a tough matchup away to Goias. The team must not only win both its matches, but also hope that Fluminense doesn't get more than three points in these games. Something difficult to happen, considering Ponte has won only two of its last ten games. Depending on Fluminense's result, a draw here would not be too bad. Goias is still fighting for a Copa Sudamericana spot, but must do better than what it did in its last three home games, all losses.
SANTA CRUZ x FLUMINENSE: Santa Cruz has been sentenced to the Serie B for a few weeks now, and seems to be just waiting for its miserable season to end. To make matters worse for them, their crosstown rivals from Sport and Nautico confirmed promotion to the Serie A next year, just as Santa goes down. This week the team has a good chance of getting some last honour saved when it hosts Fluminense, which has been playing just as poorly but remains just outside of the relegation zone thanks to a better start to the season. The team from Rio could find itself among the bottom four if it loses, so it will likely give its best effort to avoid disaster. Fluminense has drawn four times and lost six in its last ten games away from home. Santa has won three of its last seven home games.
PALMEIRAS x INTERNACIONAL: Palmeiras is not completely safe from being relegated just yet, but for that to happen the team must lose both its games while Ponte wins twice, with Fluminense also getting at least a win. The team hosts Internacional, who can finish as runners-up for the second year in a row. With its title hopes over, the team from Porto Alegre is now exclusively worried about its participation in the World Club Championship next month in Japan. Palmeiras has won its last two home games, while Inter lost to Parana away from home last weekend to see its three-game away winning streak end.
posted by fejas @ 1:52 PM
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